UFC: Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall a toss-up

The UFC’s interim heavyweight championship is up for grabs at UFC 295. Current heavyweight champion Jon Jones suffered a torn pectoral tendon, so the UFC will crown an interim champion while Jones heals. Jones was scheduled to fight Stipe Miocic before the fight was put on hold. Now, the number two and four ranked heavyweights will fight for the interim belt in the co-main event.

Fight details

Tom Aspinall will fight Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 295 on November 11 for the UFC’s interim heavyweight title. This fight is a toss-up on UFC betting sites. Aspinall has -114 odds to win the fight on Bodog. Pavlovich has almost the same odds at -105. Aspinall is the number four ranked heavyweight, and Pavlovich is the number two ranked heavyweight. 

With a lot of speculation around the futures of Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic, and with former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou in the PFL, the winner of this fight could have a strong case for being the best heavyweight in the UFC very soon. Odds for a title fight usually are not this close. This is as close to a toss-up as it gets.

Tom Aspinall

Tom Aspinall has a 13-3 professional MMA record. He has one loss in the UFC. Aspinall is currently the number four ranked heavyweight in the UFC. Aspinall has been a machine when it comes to finishing opponents in the octagon. He has won six of his seven fights since joining the UFC in 2020. Only one of those fights reached the second round, and he won that fight by submission early. All of Aspinall’s other wins have been finishes in the first round.

Unlike his opponent, Aspinall has proven that he can finish his opponents with his striking and submissions. Aspinall also showed the ability to wrestle and take his opponents down over his seven fights. His only loss was to Curtis Blaydes. The fight was stopped because Aspinall could not continue after suffering a torn MCL, torn meniscus, and ACL damage. Aspinall will have a good shot in this fight if his chin is strong enough to handle Pavlovich’s power and if he can take him down.

Sergei Pavlovich

Sergei Pavlovich has an 18-1 professional MMA record. His only loss was to Alistair Overeem in 2018, his first fight in the UFC. Pavlovich has been the epitome of a knockout artist in the UFC. Most of his victories have been quick KO/TKO wins. No heavyweight in the has been able to stand and strike with Pavlovich. His power has been enough to hurt and knock out everyone who has tried to strike with him in the UFC. He has proven one punch knockout power and accuracy. Pavlovich has more than enough power to stop Aspinall in this fight.

In his only defeat in 2018, Overeem took Pavlovich down before finishing him with strikes. This is the biggest concern if you are looking to put money down on Pavlovich because Aspinall has taken down multiple opponents and can finish them with strikes or with a submission. Pavlovich has won all of his fights in the UFC with his striking and power. He has not shown the ability to fight off his back or wrestle at an elite level. If Pavlovich can keep this fight from going to the ground, he will have a great shot because no one in the UFC has been able to handle his power so far.