UFC: Dustin Poirier slightly favoured against Justin Gaethje at UFC 291

The BMF title was vacated after Jorge Masvidal retired in April following his fight with Gilbert Burns at UFC 287. A new champ will be crowned at UFC 291. The main event will be for the title and is a fight between two of the most exciting fighters in the UFC. This is a rematch between two of the best lightweights in the UFC.

Fight details and odds

Dustin Poirier will go head-to-head with Justin Gaethje at UFC 291 on July 29 in Salt Lake City. This fight will be between two of the UFC’s top three ranked lightweights and is for the BMF title. Poirier is ranked second in the division, and Gaethje is ranked at three. The winner of this fight will keep themselves in lightweight title contention. Poirier is the betting favourite on UFC betting sites. He has -133 odds to win the fight on BetVictor. Gaethje has +105 odds.

This is the second time that Poirier and Gaethje will meet in the octagon, the first time was in 2018. Poirier stopped Gaethje in the fourth round of a competitive and exciting fight. These fighters are two of the better finishers in the UFC. Six of Poirier’s last eight wins came by either submission or KO/TKO. Other than his last two fights, Gaethje has won all of his fights in the UFC by KO/TKO. It would not be a shock if this fight does not make it to the judges. 

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Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier

Poirier is a UFC veteran and still one of the best MMA fighters in the world. He is a former interim lightweight champion. Poirier is currently the 13th ranked fighter on the UFC’s pound-for-pound rankings list. Other than winning the lightweight title without the interim tag, there is not much Poirier has not accomplished in the octagon. He’s defeated some of the best lightweights MMA has to offer including Conor McGregor, Max Holloway, and Anthony Pettis. Poirier has lost two fights since 2016, to Khabib Nurmegamedov in 2020 and Charles Oliviera in 2022.

At 34, he should be able to perform at a high level for a few more years. Although Poirier lost his second last fight against Oliveira, Poirier knocked Oliveira down and hurt him, proving that he still has knockout power.  He also dropped Michael Chandler during his last fight before submitting him. Poirier is good at ending fights, and this fight is between two guys who are not scared to throw punches or get hit. Poirier will have a lot of opportunities to stop Gaethje, and will have a good chance if he is not stopped first.

Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje

Gaethje is the underdog heading into this fight. He has +105 odds to win on BetVictor. Since losing to Poirier in 2018, Gaethje has lost two fights in the UFC. Like Poirier, he lost to Khabib Nurmegamedov and Charles Oliveira. Gaethje is also a former UFC interim lightweight champion. He was competitive in the first fight between the two, landing leg kicks and exchanging shots with Poirier. If Gaethje can land kicks and avoid Poirier’s power punches, Gaethje should be in a good position to win the fight, especially as the fight enters the later rounds.

On paper, this will be a tough fight for Gaethje to win because Poirier has fought tougher opponents than Gaethje has, is the same age, and already beat him. Gaethje’s striking, ability to finish opponents, toughness, and familiarity with Poirer are some of the reasons he has a chance in this fight. Gaethje will most likely need to knock Poirier out or get to the judges to win. The odds of Gaethje submitting Poirier are slim.

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