NFL: Early Futures, Are the Buffalo Bills Being Overrated by the Sportsbooks?

The Buffalo Bills look a little overrated right now

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are currently among the betting favourites to win a lot this upcoming NFL season. Months out from the start of the season, a few NFL betting sites released odds for awards, divisions, and more. The Bills had an up and down season, but still finished with the second best record in the conference and won their division. The NFL Draft will probably change some things, but right now the sportsbooks expect the Bills to be one of the top teams in the league.

The Bills finished second in the AFC last year with an 11-6 record. They defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-17 in the first round of the playoffs before losing to the eventual Super Bowl and AFC champs Kansas City Chiefs 27-24 in the next round. Right now on Bet99, the Bills have the fourth best odds to win Super Bowl 59. They have +1150 odds right now. The last time the Bills reached the AFC Championship game was the 2020/2021 season, a 38-24 loss to the Chiefs.

The Bills’ core players are similar to last year. One of their biggest acquisitions this offseason so far is wide receiver Curtis Samuel who they picked up in free agency. Samuel played for the Washington Commanders last season and finished with 62 catches, 613 yards, and four touchdowns. But they lost WR Gabe Davis to the Jacksonville Jaguars in free agency. The Bills also lost defensive end Leonard Floyd to the San Francisco 49ers and cornerback Tre’Davious White to the Los Angeles Rams.

The best just got better

With star running back Derrick Henry headed to the Baltimore Ravens, Aaron Rodgers returning to the New York Jets from injury, another year under Brock Purdy’s belt, and WR Marquise Brown heading to the Chiefs, it looks like a lot of the top contenders around the league have upgraded their roster while the Bills didn’t pick up any big names. Unless Allen and Stefon Diggs have MVP-caliber seasons or the other contenders have serious injury problems, there aren’t many reasons to believe this team will be better than last year based on their moves so far.

Again, the draft could change some things, but the Bills look like they might be overrated right now. The Bills have better odds to win the Super Bowl than every team other than the 49ers, Chiefs, and Ravens. The 49ers are the current betting favourites at +510. The Chiefs are at +600 and Ravens at +900.

Derrick Henry is a Baltimore Raven 🔥 pic.twitter.com/KwTpggQKQc
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) March 14, 2024

The Bills also have the third best odds to win the AFC at +600, one spot above the +700 Cincinnati Bengals. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are number one with +325 odds. On paper, the AFC should be better than last year. Bengals QB Joe Burrow is returning from injury, the Steelers signed Russell Wilson, the Los Angeles Chargers have a new head coach in Jim Harbaugh, and more. At +600 to win the conference, the Bills look like they could be overrated in the AFC right now also.

Josh Allen has the second best odds to win the MVP

Over the last few seasons, Allen has consistently been one of the best players at his position and in the league. He has +675 odds to win the MVP, second behind Patrick Mahomes at +600. Lamar Jackson won the award last season. Allen finished fifth behind Jackson, Dak Prescott, Christian McCaffrey, and Brock Purdy. Allen has a shot because the MVP usually goes to a QB, but is he being overrated at the number two spot? He is barely behind Mahomes and is ahead of all the other players who finished ahead of him in the MVP voting last season. If the Bills are an 11-6 team again or worse, Allen will probably need to have the best season of his career to win the MVP.