The NBA season is approaching fast. A ton of free agents signed with new teams, a couple of star players were traded, and the rookies made their debut in the summer league.
On Tuesday, one of the rookies made headlines for his bold Rookie of the Year prediction. Despite San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama being in his draft class, he predicted he will win the 2023 NBA Rookie of the Year Award.
Portland Trail Blazers guard Scoot Henderson predicted he will win the Rookie of the Year award on episode four of League Dreams: The Way to Be Great.
The third pick in this year’s NBA draft is preparing for his first year in the league while the Trail Blazers work on finding a suitable package for point guard Damian Lillard in a trade; Lillard requested a trade this offseason, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.
“My goal is obviously to win Rookie of the Year. And I will win Rookie of the Year,” Henderson said. The ROY odds were released before the NBA draft. Now we know which team each rookie will play for this season
Henderson is second in the race for ROY on NBA betting sites. He has +328 odds to win ROY on Tonybet. Because a Lillard trade seems imminent, Henderson should be a solid choice for ROY this year. The Orlando Magic’s Paolo Banchero won the award last season, averaging 20 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 3.7 assists.
Without Lillard, Henderson should have a better chance to win this award than most of the other rookies because he will not be playing alongside an All-Star who he must defer to, so Henderson should have a lot more opportunities on offense than players like Charlotte Hornets forward Brandon Miller, Oklahoma City center Chet Holmgren, and Houston Rockets guard Amen Thompson.
These guys have to share the ball with former All-Stars LaMelo Ball, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Fred VanVleet.
Victor Wembanyama is the betting favourite to win ROY at -151 odds. Wembanyama was the first pick in the draft and one of the most hyped prospects in recent NBA history.
He is the betting favourite for myriad reasons. Wembanyama is on one of the worst teams in the league and does not have much competition for shots, he has the ability to impact the game on offense and defense, and his potential is exceptional.
There are not many reasons to bet against Wembanyama if the scouts and experts are right about him. Wojnarowski said Wembanyama “might be the greatest prospect in the history of team sports.”
The most glaring concern about the French center is injury. He is listed at 7’3 and 225 pounds. His weight is a huge concern because he will have to defend much bigger players in the NBA for 82 games. For context, last year’s MVP Joel Embiid is listed at 7’0 and 280 pounds. Embiid has still only played more than 65 games in a season twice, the last two seasons.
Chet Holmgren has the third best odds to win ROY at +330. Despite his odds, Holmgren will probably have a tough time winning this award unless his play leads to a significant increase in wins for the Thunder this year. Accumulating a lot of numbers this season should be tougher for Holmgren with Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, and Victor Oladipo on the roster.
Brandon Miller has 4th best odds at +1229. Miller is a solid pick because he is on a bad team and should get a lot of playing time. If a couple of the favourites go down due to an injury, Miller could win the award by default. The Thompson twins, Amen and Asur, are also worth strong consideration because their teams were two of the three worst scoring offenses in the league last year.
Since Amar’e Stoudemire won the award in 2004 while averaging 13.5 points per game, only one rookie has won the award after averaging less than 15 points, Karl Anthony Towns in 2016. Houston Rockets forward Amen Thompson is at +2539, Detroit Pistons forward Ausar Thompson has +3331 odds. We wrote about Toronto Raptors rookie Gradey Dick’s ROY chances in a previous article.
