College Football: Michigan vs Penn State Week 11 Betting Preview

Week 11 doesn’t have a ton of must-watch games, but in the Big Ten, there is surely one. #3 Michigan, who are unbeaten at 9-0, will head to State College to face #9 Penn State in a rivalry matchup on Saturday at Beaver Stadium. The kick-off is scheduled for 12 PM ET. The Wolverines could be facing some punishment shortly for the sign-stealing scandal but on the field, they’re performing well and look to be a lock for the College Football Playoff if things don’t go astray with this saga. The Nittany Lions meanwhile just hammered Maryland 51-15 and should give Michigan a run for their money. Below, we’ll discuss the history between the two programs and preview the contest.

Michigan has the edge

Michigan and Penn State have faced off 26 times, with the Wolverines holding the 16-10 edge. While the Nittany Lions won three of four between 2017 and 2020, Michigan has won two in a row since, beating Penn State 21-17 in 2021 and 41-17 last season. They have lost two of the previous three games in State College, though.

Michigan in serious hot water

The main storyline in college football right now is the sign-stealing scandal. Former Michigan staffer Connor Stalions has already left the program but there’s a high chance that head coach Jim Harbaugh and/or the Wolverines will be reprimanded for the allegations. If that happens, their CFP hopes will be down the drain. All the drama aside though, it’s been a great season for Michigan, who continue to shine each and every week.

The Wolverines are pretty electric offensively, ranking fifth in the nation with 40.7 points per contest. Quarterback JJ McCarthy is having a ridiculously efficient year, completing 75.7% of his passes for 2,134 yards and 18 touchdowns against just three interceptions. He’s the real deal. The O-Line has only allowed him to be sacked 11 times, too. Defense is where Michigan really shines though, allowing only 6.7 points per game. They’re also top-10 in the fewest total yards allowed and passing yards allowed. No team has come even close to beating Michigan this season, beating most of their opponents by 30+ points. But, Penn State could make this one a little closer, hence why the Wolverines are a smaller favorite than usual at Bodog.

Can Penn State pull off the upset?

As previously mentioned, there is no shortage of focus on Michigan for all the wrong reasons right now. Penn State may see this as an opportunity to take advantage and had the Wolverines their first loss. They’re certainly capable of doing so considering the team’s recent track record against their Big Ten foes. The Nittany Lions are third in East standings with an 8-1 record and have moved up to 9th in the nation after beating Indiana and most recently, Maryland, by 36 points.

Drew Allar carved up the Terrapins defense, completing 25 of 34 throws for 240 yards and four touchdowns. He’s now thrown for 20 TDs against one pick this season. Allar is a big reason Penn State is a contender. The Nittany Lions truly dominated this contest in all facets, compiling 404 total yards and actually holding Maryland to -49 yards on the ground.

PSU is also legit on both sides of the ball and has shown the ability to come up with tons of stops defensively. They’ve only allowed 11.9 points per game and a mere 60.3 rushing yards every week. That’ll be important against a Wolverines squad with Blake Corum, who is rushing for 5.2 yards per carry to go along with 16 scores. Penn State is an underdog at most football betting sites, but the Beaver Stadium atmosphere should help them keep this matchup close.