After scoring 70 last week, Miami Dolphins underdogs vs Buffalo Bills

The Miami Dolphins had one of the highest scoring performances in NFL history last week. The Dolphins put up 70 points against the Denver Broncos, winning the game 70-20. And they did it without WR Jaylen Waddle. Coming off that historic game, the Dolphins head into week four the underdogs on NFL betting sites in their week four game on the road.

Betting details

The Miami Dolphins will play against the Buffalo Bills on October 1 in Buffalo. The Bills are the betting favourites heading into this game. They have -150 odds to win the game on Bodog. The Dolphins are the underdogs at the moment. They have +130 odds to win the game. Both teams are coming off dominant week three victories. The Bills defeated the Commanders by over 30 points, the final score was 37-3. If the Dolphins did not defeat the Broncos by 50 points, the Bills’ victory would have arguably had the most dominant victory of the week. 

This is a tough game to call because these are two AFC East teams and both are hot. The Bills have scored 75 points and allowed only 13 points over their last two games. The Dolphins have scored 130 points so far this season. The Bills defense will probably be the deciding factor in this game. The Bills defense is allowing the second fewest points per game, and their offense is the second highest scoring offense in the league.

Over/Under 53.5 points

At 43.3 points per game, the Dolphins are leading the league in points scored. Their 70 point game last week has a lot to do with that, but they scored 36 points in week one against the Los Angeles Chargers and 24 points in week two against the New England Patriots. Considering these are the two highest scoring teams in the league at the moment, 53.5 points looks like a solid bet. If Waddle is in the lineup for the Dolphins, this game should go over unless one of the quarterbacks has a terrible game.

Without Waddle over 53.5 still should be a solid bet. Although the Bills have held their last two opponents to 3 and 10 points, the New York Jets without Aaron Rodgers scored 22 points. The Jets have not scored more than 10 points since that game. Together, the Bills and Dolphins are averaging 73.6 points per game this season. A reason to bet the under is this is a division game, so the teams are familiar with each other. Last season, their week three game finished with a 21-19 score, and their week 15 game finished with a 32-29 score. 

The spread

The Bills are -3 favourites on the spread. The Dolphins won their first game against the Chargers by two points. The Bills have not been in a game that finished within three points this year, but they lost to the Jets in overtime by six points. Last season, neither team was able to take a game off the other by more than three points. They also split the games, the Dolphins won the first game. The Bills won the second. The Dolphins took both games in 2021 by a lot more than three points. 

They defeated the Bills 35-0 in week two and 26-11 in week eight. These are two of the highest scoring teams in the NFL right now, so the game might be tight, but either team could score a touchdown near the end of the game or blow out the other team. On the other hand, the game could end with a field goal if both offenses are clicking and one team needs to score at the end to get the victory. Although the former is probably more likely because the Bills defense is one of the best in the league right now. Scoring in this game should be much tougher for the Dolphins than the Bills. The Dolphins are allowing the 12th most points per game this season. But remember this is a division game, so the numbers might not tell us as much as they usually would.